GIS Analysis and Modeling of Texas Rookery Island Erosion Risk along the GIWW

Summary

Audubon Texas will assemble GIS data and build a spatial, habitat-based model to predict the risk of islands along the GIWW becoming unusable for nesting due to poor habitat or erosion damage. GIS data will be gathered on select sample sites and a model will be built to predict the sites' longevity as a nesting area based on physical parameters. The model will predict which sites are most at-risk of becoming too damaged for bird nesting and each site's probability of becoming unusable for nesting. Data from the island-risk model will be compared to the Texas Colonial Waterbird Society’s database to identify specific waterbird species most likely to be impacted by habitat/island loss in each bay system. Historical habitat data will be compared to current data to anticipate waterbird species' movements due to habitat/island loss.