Advancing Oil Spill Forecasts Using a High-Resolution Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System

Summary

Oil Spill forecast have been traditionally based on ocean only models. In this conventional practice, ocean and atmosphere are assumed to be uncoupled and ocean forecast models are forced by predicted near-surface atmospheric conditions derived from routine weather forecast. Potential pitfalls of such an approach include; 1) uncertainties caused by systematic errors and inadequate resolutions from weather forecast products: 2) exclusion of frontal- and meso-scale air-sea interactions 3) inability to resolve important physical processes affecting oil spills during extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. The overarching objective of this proposal is to put forward an advanced coupled regional forecast system that can overcome the pitfalls of ocean-only forecast systems. The coupled forecast system highlighted in this research consist of a state-of-the-art cloud-permitting/eddy-resolving coupled atmosphere-ocean model capable of explicitly resolving small-scale air-sea processes that are lacking in the ocean-only modeling approach. As such, the coupled regional forecast system represents a major advance in oil spill prediction science and application, potentially leading to major improvements in accuracy and uncertainty quantification of oil spill forecasts, which are enormous beneficial to the Texas General Land Office and oil spill response community. In this proposal, we will demonstrate the feasibility, effectiveness and benefits of this new forecast system in the Gulf of Mexico.